Anthropogenic climate change is transforming ambient heat into a pervasive environmental hazard. The recent decade, from 2014 to 2023, has been the warmest on record in the history of mankind, with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reaching new heights of 425 ppm (parts per million) from 280 ppm in the pre-industrial levels.
While the Earth constantly goes through natural warming and cooling phases, the current level of 425 ppm represents a 50% increase since the 18th century. This rate of increase, specially over the past 60 years, is about 100 times faster than the previous natural increases. This rapid and significant change in atmospheric composition through the compounding build-up of CO2 is different in the sense that it is not natural, but set in motion by unchecked capitalistic human activities. One aspect that draws wide agreement is that this is not just a global climate change, but a climate crisis.
While a number of grave consequences are born out of this climate crisis, heat-waves are arguably one of the gravest. Defined as departure from normal temperatures by at least 4.5 degrees Celsius, ‘heatwaves’ have become a routine threat to public health and wildlife alike, both in urban and rural areas. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) recently predicted that 85% of the country will experience multiple heatwave events from April to June this year. During this period, temperatures may be 5°C or more above normal.
Living beings are suffering from heat-waves across all of India (and the planet). During the period of 1950-2015, India has experienced a significant mean temperature rise of 0.15 degree Celsius per decade, with warm days and nights increasing at a rate of seven days and three days per decade, respectively. This means that the accelerated anthropogenic warming has led to at least 42 additional warm days and 18 additional warm nights in 2025. In the context of Indian summers, this math adds up. Summers are either arriving early or departing late, or both.
Moreover, these ‘anomalies’ are projected to increase between two and four-fold by 2050. Further, while India’s plain and coastal regions are considered more vulnerable to heat impacts, hilly states are far from immune to the effects of rising temperatures. The example of Himachal Pradesh, which was once considered a paradise for its ambient temperatures and climate but is now witnessing scorching temperatures for prolonged periods, is a case in point.
Mortalities and other Costs of a Warming World
Heat-waves go beyond temporary solutions and have multiple pathways, even leading to death. Vital organ damage and other chronic conditions, be it cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal, are some of the most common consequences of excessively hot temperatures. According to data from National Centre for Disease Control, heat claimed around 200 valuable human lives between March 1 and June 20, 2024, in India, with more than 41,000 reported cases of heatstroke.
It is also noteworthy that the impact of heatwaves is not spread evenly. The risks of extreme heat are experienced disproportionately; with some workers getting affected more due to socio-economic factors such as age, poorly ventilated and poorly cooled housing, occupational setting, access to healthcare, and income, etc. Furthermore, heat stress is also resulting in, among other things, water crises and unbearable working conditions. In fact, the International Labour Organisation estimates that working hours lost due to heat stress will be around 5.8% of total working hours by 2030, an equivalent of around 3.4 crore jobs.
This precarious situation is projected to worsen over the coming years, with heatwaves coming more frequently, hitting populations with more intensity, and staying for longer periods – with urban heat island effects further exacerbating their impact. The IPCC’s AR6 report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, warns of escalating climate hazards, including wildfires, floods, heatwaves, and disease outbreaks. It emphasizes that while we have the tools to respond to these worsening climate change impacts, there is an urgent need for bold actions to implement plans that match the scale of this existential crisis.
The report states that a hotter planet is more dangerous and costlier, due to compounding supply chain problems, transport disruptions, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and personal income losses from food insecurity and climate-driven diseases – all of which cause significant economic harm and chaos. Evidence shows heavy economic burdens from extreme heat, including higher energy needs for air conditioning and increased rates of heat-related illnesses and deaths.
The physical and mental health costs of climate-sensitive events are often excluded from disaster damage assessments, but recent science indicates that over one-third of heat-related deaths globally between 1991-2018 were attributable to climate change. While reducing emissions can deliver major health benefits, the report stresses that adaptation actions need to be scaled up significantly faster, as they take years to achieve their full promise. To enable this, the current adaptation financing gap must be closed through strong near-term policies from governments, businesses, civil society, and individuals.
Need for Heat Adaptation
Stabilisation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) primarily depend upon changes in technology, discovery of new and less polluting fuels and with awareness in human behaviour towards mother earth. Since all these changes are slow in nature and take decades to take shape, adaptation is seen as a viable option in reducing the vulnerability to anticipated negative impacts of global warming.
Moreover, after the failure of Copenhagen (COP 15) and many other successive climate negotiations, the failure by the Global North to provide climate financing, and the dampening effect that Donald Trump’s election in the United States has played for global climate action, it is realised that we can neither rely solely upon international forums for climate justice nor depend upon mitigation alone. To safeguard our common future, we must integrate the process of adaptation at the local level to fight climate change.
This is where Heat Action Plans (HAPs) come in the picture. HAPs are part of the larger Climate Action Plans (CAPs) prepared by the governments at various levels (state, district, and city) to increase preparedness and lower the adverse impacts of extreme heat by outlining strategies and measures to prepare for, address, and recover from heatwaves. In India, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) are reported to be working with 23 states to develop HAPs.
Heat Action Plans in India provide an overview of regional heat profiles, including data on past heatwaves, temperature trends, and land surface temperatures. They then assess vulnerability to identify areas needing immediate measures for heat adaptation. Based on this, the plans outline response strategies to address heat-related risks in those vulnerable regions. HAPs in India recognize that heat waves either occur in conjunction with or result in other hazards, such as high levels of water stress, drought, high winds, forest fires, etc. that compound the impact of heatwaves. Many also highlight the cascading impacts of heatwaves on sectors such as energy and power supply, water supply, public transport, education, and animal husbandry, among others.
Shortcomings of Heat Action Plans (HAPs)
However, while many Indian cities have Heat Action Plans in existence, they are often limited in their capacity due to the lack of financial and administrative resources, as well as political will. Further, the HAPs in India are not completely successful in grasping the nuances of, and in the localization of, the heat hazard definition.
Heat planning needs to be strengthened by using available scientific data to understand the changing nature of the hazard (e.g., interaction of heat and humidity), the compounding of heat with other hazards (e.g., heat and drought and forest fires), and the cascading impact across sectors beyond human health. Further, limitations of administrative machinery; ranging from faltering coordination between departments, to competing priorities in beureaucracies with weak technical capacity, and subscription to the view that heat is not a policy problem – limits the prospect of long-term planning for heat mitigation and adaptation, at least from the state’s perspective.
While HAPs are rendered more as reactive tools to heat management, they need to be proactive and anticipatory. For this, detailed and highly localized predictions about how the climate is going to shift in the future must be used in HAP revisions, in addition to focusing on past temperature trends.
Further, when HAPs of different administrative levels are delved into, it becomes visible that efficiency, pragmatism, and innovation are something that lack throughout. While tools like green roofing, tree-planting, and awareness programs are tools advocated in these action plans, these measures are fraught with challenges. For instance, the practice of planting trees to provide shade from excessive heat was not aligned with heat vulnerability assessments. Another instance was when officials in multiple cities reported challenges to planting trees in dense, hot slums and informal settlements, where land is scarce and/or politically sensitive.
The need of the hour is to also focus on long-term transformational actions, such as climate-sensitive urban planning and changing cropping patterns. Although coming with higher implementation costs, these could significantly reduce heat exposure and ease HAP implementation in the long run. Capacity of HAPs needs to be built in order to make it a transformative, cross-sectoral mechanism, with avenues like health, construction and schools receiving active collaboration between government departments, civil society, and local heat research ecosystems.
Strengthening Heat Action Plans (HAPs)
A special role in heat adaptation is to be played by the cities, which are the primary consumers of energy and emit the lion’s share of global CO2 emissions. Being at the forefront of this climate exchange, their future is certain to shape how climate crisis and the discourse around it will be looked at. Therefore, the focus also falls on Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) to prioritise action on building resilience against heatwaves and its myriad consequences. Heat Action Plans are required to be infused with city planning, with all institutions – academia, non-governmental organisations, citizens, and the state government – coming on-board, along with the Municipal Corporations.
There is also a dire need for the central and state governments to give clear policy directions and financial incentives to support the local governments in heat mitigation and adaptation. Further, knowledge-sharing needs to be stepped-up, as climate change is dynamic with varied effects in different geographies and on different demographics. Platforms for the sharing of best practices do exist. For instance, the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, which links around 100 big cities to share urban initiatives against climate crisis, the Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), which is a global network working with more than 2500 local and regional governments committed to sustainable urban development, and the India Forum for Nature-based Solutions, which is India’s first national coalition platform launched by NIUA and WRI India to mainstream ecosystem-based services and nature-based solutions for building climate resilience. However, there is a need for extensive proliferation of such mechanisms with periodic revisions, and the primary role needs to be played by the governments at the state and central level.
Role of Indigenous Knowledge System and Community-led Action
Urban lifestyles also need to be modified or eschewed to bring urban living in line with environmentally responsible behaviour (ERB). While the need for this is reflected in the Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) initiative launched by the Union Government in 2021 to nudge behavioural changes and community-driven efforts, these programs need to have mechanisms to restore traditional and indigenous knowledge systems tied with heat adaptation and mitigation.
Given the rich repositories of indigenous knowledge systems, local populations in different parts of India have equipped themselves with unique form of skills to reduce their vulnerability to climate extremes. However, these knowledge systems are rarely taken into consideration while designing modern mitigation and adaptation strategies. For instance, the climate of north-western India is characterised by extremely high range of temperatures and aridity throughout the year, making it the hottest region of India.
The communities living here have evolved many strategies for heat adaptation, which are visible in everyday activities, ranging from agriculture and livestock rearing to housing and clothing. Most noteworthy among the primary strategies is the development and protection of Ponds, Johad, Nadi, etc., which hold water when rainfalls are scarce and provide year-round. Simultaneously, these structures, which have stood the test of time, help in replenishing groundwater tables and preventing rain-water run-off. Moreover, structures like Johad also play a significant role in collecting surplus water in times of sudden floods, helping prevent severe destruction as well. In terms of housing design, the traditional houses in this region are built with their face towards east. This kind of direction allows morning cool sunlight into the house but protects from the intense heat of the afternoon at the same time. Further, the houses are built by sand stones and lime stones – materials which do not absorb heat.
This is in stark contrast with the glass buildings now being proliferated in various urban centres of India, which are a mindless and context-less copy-paste of the western architectural practices, where glass is incorporated to let in the scarce sunlight.
However, community-led actions, while important, may have limitations in addressing broader systemic changes needed to combat climate change effectively, especially as compared to larger policy stimulus, which have the potential to bring transformational shifts in climate mitigation and adaptation.
Recommendations For Government Intervention
When we talk about policy push for overall capacity building, we can look at the interest-free loans provided by the central government to states. For instance, in FY21, the Union Government launched the Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment scheme, wherein 50-year interest-free loans were given to help states battle covid waves. Allocations to the scheme have seen a significant rise in the past few years, from Rs. 12,000 crore in FY21 to Rs. 1.3 lakh crore in FY24.
These loans are aimed to drive reforms and capital expenditure by states. To avail these loans, states are required to meet several conditions, including reforms in housing, urban planning, etc. Infrastructure that helps in climate adaptation and mitigation can be included in these reforms as a condition for states to avail interest-free loans, which would ensure enhanced capacity of state governments and institutions to fight climate change.
Local and state governments can also lessen the health risk of rising temperatures by bringing in land use and urban design practices responsive to heat, as well as through energy efficiency programs designed to lessen waste heat emissions from buildings and vehicles. The implementation of stricter vehicle emission standards such as the Bharat Stage (BS) standards in India aims primarily to reduce air pollution and improve air quality, and can have some positive effects on urban heat management, as vehicle emissions contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants and particulate matter, which can exacerbate heat island effects in urban areas and help in heat mitigation. While the contribution of this measure to urban heat management would be little in comparison to heat adaptation strategies like cool-roofing, creating green spaces, and enhancing urban forestry, its impact can consolidate in the longer run.
The summer sun in India this year has been harsh on the larger ecology and nearly 90% of India is in a danger zone from heatwave impact, with almost all of Delhi being at risk of severe heat wave impacts. Instances have cropped up ranging from people dying due to heat in cities like Ahmedabad and Jaipur, to ponds in forests drying up, affecting the wildlife and forcing animals’ migration to nearby establishments, worsening man-animal conflict. These escalating climate impacts underscore the urgent need to strengthen and expand the capacity of Heat Action Plans across India.
Author: Sunderam Saxena
(Email ID: sunderam.saxena44@gmail.com)
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